Bitcoin sedikit turun berbanding sebelumnya, sementara ketidakpastian geopolitik masih berterusan — Perbincangan Pasaran

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0751 GMT - Bitcoin eases after reaching a one-month high Wednesday on improved market sentiment. The pickup in sentiment followed a New York Times report that Iran operatives had indirectly contacted the U.S. to discuss terms for ending their conflict and President Trump's pledge to provide military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz to steady oil markets. However, uncertainty remains elevated. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the conflict could last up to eight weeks, although he stated that the U.S. can carry out its air campaign for as long as it wishes. Bitcoin falls 1.5% to $72,248 after reaching a high of $74,049, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0742 GMT - The People's Bank of China is expected to take a cautious approach on interest-rate cuts, ANZ Research economists say in a note. If 1Q GDP growth comes in at 4.5%, the likelihood of a near-term policy rate cut would be minimal, as headline growth is projected to pick up in later quarters. ANZ maintains its forecast for two 25bp reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2026, with the first likely before the Politburo meeting in April. "Targeted easing measures are expected to be used by authorities to foster structural growth," ANZ adds. China's lower GDP growth target may also give its central bank room to review its policy framework, which could lead to reforms of the interest-rate corridor, bank reserve requirements and exchange-rate management. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0739 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in opening trade, tracking U.S. Treasurys and reversing the previous day's moves. Despite overall fragile investor sentiment, some signs point to stabilization ahead, with focus on economic data. "There are tentative signs that the front-end washout may be nearing an end, perhaps allowing a small role for incoming data," Citi's Jamie Searle and Puja Sawant say in a note. In a bigger-picture context, the rates strategists doubt that the energy price spike due to the Middle East conflict can reverse monetary-policy cycles. The 10-year German Bund yield rises 4 basis points to 2.784%, according to Tradeweb. Ten-year Spanish and French bond yield rise by slightly more ahead of respective bond auctions. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0731 GMT - The dollar rises after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data further reduced the prospect of further interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The ISM services purchasing mangers' index jumped to 56.1 in February from 53.8 in January. The ADP private payrolls report also exceeded forecasts with a 63,000 increase in employment. The data, released Wednesday, came amid rising energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict which have prompted markets to scale back bets for further Fed rate cuts due to the potential for higher inflation. The market is now only fully pricing in one rate cut this year by September, LSEG data show. The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.004. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0725 GMT - China's nominal GDP is expected to grow 4.8% in 2026, though this would require raising an additional 3 trillion yuan in debt, ANZ Research economists say in a note. They note that China lowered its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5%-5.0% at this week's National People's Congress, as expected, which ANZ views as a stretch goal. Still, the economists say the growth target downgrade outlined in China's five-year plan is a reasonable baseline given demographic headwinds and rising trade protectionism, with GDP per capita still able to double from 2020 levels by 2035. Moreover, China is seeking to curb internal competition among local governments and shift toward building a unified national market, suggesting GDP growth is no longer the sole policy priority.(jason.chau@wsj.com)

0712 GMT - It's too early to talk about markets returning to normal but investors could consider adding some more risk to their portfolios, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. "We are not ready yet to sound the all clear for markets as we still believe that the tail risk of something drastic is high," the global economist says. Iran's willingness to carry on for a long war shouldn't be underestimated, he says. "But we would be looking to selectively add risk over the coming days." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0706 GMT - China's overall policy environment in 2026 should be positive and pragmatic, says Marcella Chow, strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, in a note. China's GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% lays a solid foundation for the economy to reach per-capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035, but also acknowledges uncertainties this year, Chow says. "The government's commitment to 'striving for better results in practical tasks' underscores a proactive and flexible approach," she says. The absence of substantial real-estate stimulus, and the prioritization of domestic demand and technological innovation, suggest the latter will be key growth pillars this year, she adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0704 GMT - The Indian rupee strengthens against the U.S. dollar in the Asian session amid speculation of foreign-exchange intervention following the currency's sharp weakening to a new low a day earlier. The RBI "has reportedly intervened in the FX market to smooth volatility in the rupee," Charlie Lay of Commerzbank Research says. With India's sizable buffer of forex reserves and relatively sound macroeconomic fundamentals, the central bank has the capacity to "smooth market pressures," the analyst writes in a report. Also, the "RBI is unlikely to panic or target a stronger rupee but will probably continue leaning against excessive volatility," Lay says. The U.S. dollar falls 0.5% to 91.62 rupees after hitting a record high 92.31 rupees overnight, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0700 GMT - Eurozone government bond investors appear to have resumed buying bonds after the recent selloff prompted by inflationary worries due to the Middle East conflict, Danske Bank's Jens Peter Sorensen says in a note. There was a bit of a rebound in European government bonds yields on Wednesday as most European government bond yields declined and spreads began to tighten, the chief analyst says. "Hence, it seems investors are looking for trades that fade the recent rise in yields," he says. On Wednesday, the 10-year German Bund yield closed almost 3 basis points lower at 2.746%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0659 GMT - Spain and France will conduct government bond auctions in the eurozone on Thursday, offering a range of debt including long-dated ones. Spain's 4.75 billion euros to 6.25 billion euros offer is for 2029-, 2033- and 2041-dated nominal bonds and 2036-dated inflation-linked bonds. France, meanwhile, will auction 11.5 billion euros to 13.5 billion euros in 2035-, 2036-, 2043- and 2046-dated bonds. The auctions come amid a somewhat better market sentiment following global bond selloffs in the wake of the Middle East conflict. "Market sentiment seems to be stabilising tentatively but remains dependent on developments in Iran and the European Central Bank reaction function," Commerzbank's Erik Liem says in a note. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0637 GMT - China's National People's Congress meeting wasn't much of a surprise, and could disappoint some given the limited details on its measures to strengthen consumer sentiment, says Morningstar's director of equity research Lorraine Tan in an email. The announcements largely reinforce priorities that were previously signaled, she added. The lower GDP growth target appears pragmatic, but markets had already adjusted down their long-term growth expectations. The cut in goods subsidies aligns with the government's ongoing shift toward boosting services consumption instead of goods demand, which had been communicated earlier, she says. Measures such as extending school holidays are likely intended to support spending, particularly in leisure, travel, and entertainment, she adds.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0636 GMT - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a three-week high of 4.131% in Asian trade before retreating from that intraday high as investors keep focus on the inflationary impact of the Middle East war. That said, U.S. Treasurys are being close to fair value and are an important tool in overall portfolio strategy, Russell Investments' BeiChen Lin says. U.S. Treasury yields rise across maturities in a steepening manner, with bigger increases in long-end yields than in short-end yields. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1.3 basis points to 3.554%; the 10-year yield is up 3.5 bps at 4.116%; and the 30-year yield is up 4.1 bps at 4.757%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260305002224:0/