Bitcoin terus mencatatkan penurunan kerana konflik di Timur Tengah mengurangkan selera pelabur terhadap risiko — Perbincangan Pasaran

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0706 GMT - Bitcoin remains weak, trading below $70,000, after reaching a one-month low overnight as an escalation in the Middle East conflict dampens demand for risky assets. President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranian from Iran, WSJ reports. Trump also told the Financial Times that he could seize the export hub of Kharg Island. Meanwhile, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrived in the Middle East and Iran warned it would set fire to any troops attempting to enter Iranian territory. Bitcoin rises 1.2% to $67,347 after reaching a low of $64,991 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0640 GMT - In its recent report, the Bank of Japan dropped a hint that the nation's neutral rate is likely on the higher end, BNP Paribas economists say. The BOJ's latest findings suggest that the neutral rate likely lies in a range of 1.1% to 2.5%. The BOJ noted that some of the estimates used to calculate Japan's natural interest rate are probably biased and too low. This suggests the BOJ believes the actual target for interest rates should be significantly higher than 1%, the economists say. "That quietly signals that the BOJ sees a clear path for continuous rate hikes ahead," they add. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0634 GMT - The dollar eases slightly after reaching a two-week high overnight on increased demand for safe havens and higher oil prices due to the widening conflict in the Middle East. The dollar's pullback reflects a stronger Japanese yen after Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said Monday authorities might need to take decisive steps to curb the currency's weakness. Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda also pledged to monitor the yen's moves. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 100.097 after reaching a high of 100.342 overnight. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0614 GMT - The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from its March meeting signals a potential rate hike in April despite high uncertainty over the Middle East situation, BNP Paribas economists say. "In the current economic environment, the degree to which rising import costs are passed on to prices is significant. Consequently, many policy board members likely feel compelled to prioritize the risk of an upward shift in inflation expectations," they say. "If Middle East tensions ease over the coming weeks and crude oil prices stabilize to some extent, reducing downside risks to the economy, the BOJ will likely find it easier to move toward a rate hike at its April meeting," they add. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0554 GMT - The eventual duration of the Middle East war--and the transmission of the energy supply shock to consumer prices, and how this then feeds into the evolution of consumer demand--will be critical to the overall and longer-term cost of the war, First Abu Dhabi Bank's Simon Ballard and Almaha Al Nuaimi say in a note. "The longer and more protracted the conflict is, the more structurally damaging and hawkish it will surely be for the macroeconomic outlook," the analysts say. For now, they hope the war will end in the coming weeks and simply result in a short-term stagflation environment. This scenario would support the case for the Federal Reserve and other western central banks to leave interest rates steady over the coming months, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0552 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields fall in Asian trade even as oil prices rise as bond investors gradually shift their focus to growth risks from the Middle East war from inflation fears. The damage and disruption caused so far the energy sector is likely to continue to have an impact for some time to come, and it may also affect other areas of the economy, says LBBW's senior fixed income analyst Elmar Voelker in a note. LBBW expects economies on both sides of the Atlantic will suffer growth losses of around a quarter of a percentage point in the current year compared to its previous main scenario. The two-year Treasury yield falls 3.9 basis points to 3.875%; the 10-year yield is down 5.2 bps at 4.387%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0550 GMT - The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from its March meeting, which showed the board's growing caution over the impact of rising oil prices, will likely support the view of an immediate interest-rate increase, some BOJ watchers say. "The impact of the Middle East conflict on future rate hikes continued to be presented as a two-way risk, but hawkish views were more dominant than we expected," Barclays economists say. They continue to expect the BOJ to raise interest rates in April, given the summary's hawkish tone, the yen's weakening toward the 160 threshold against the dollar, and the upward revision to the output gap released last week. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0537 GMT - Morgan Stanley recommends investors buy five-year U.S. Treasurys outright at a yield level of 4.06%, its strategists say in a note. The five-year Treasury yield last trades at 4.022%, according to Tradeweb. They also recommend investors bet on a steeper seven- to 30-year Treasury curve, entering the trade at 71 basis points. "U.S. Treasury yields moved higher with energy prices since February 27 [the day before the start of the Middle East war], but we think recent price action in 1y/1y U.S. CPI inflation swaps reflects increasing downside risks to growth--something equity indices began to pick up as well." If energy prices continue to climb, then downside risks to growth should rise further, the strategists say. (emese.bartha@wjs.com)

0534 GMT - As Europe and Japan are far more reliant on energy imports than the U.S., it is no surprise that the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have turned far more hawkish, Thornburg Investment Management's Lei Wang says in a note. "Oil and gas prices have risen sharply enough to push headline inflation back up, and policymakers are clearly worried about the first-round energy impact," the portfolio manager says. He also points to second-round effects: wages, pricing behavior and inflation expectations. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0530 GMT - Mounting shocks to the Australian economy will weaken household disposable incomes, says Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC. Interest rate hikes and sharply higher gasoline prices are set to significantly weaken consumer spending in March and into 2Q, he says. This is likely to lead to a fall in GDP in 2Q, Bloxham adds. The longer the conflict continues, the higher oil prices are expected to stay and the more disruptive the shock is expected to be. If the war continues long-term, a technical recession is likely, he says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0525 GMT - High quality bonds once again play a meaningful role in portfolios and look attractive across a variety of economic scenarios, Pimco's Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls say in a note. "For portfolios that have drifted heavily toward equities, this is a practical moment to consider rebalancing," economist Wilding and CIO for global fixed income Balls say. Yields across more liquid fixed income remain attractive, laying a solid foundation for market-driven income and returns, they say. High quality bonds can serve as a returns generator, cushion against equity volatility, offer valuable diversification if growth disappoints or risk sentiment deteriorates, and provide liquidity that can be redeployed when markets dislocate, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0519 GMT - Westpac has added two more interest-rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia because of the deteriorating inflation outlook, and warned that the central bank will be cautious when the time comes to cut. Westpac now expects 25bp rate hikes at the June and August policy meetings, in addition to the hike it already expects in May. Westpac trajectory puts the official cash rate at 4.85% by the end of the year. The shift reflects the longer disruption to and slower recovery in fuel supply assumed earlier, says Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260330000932:0/