Evening digest: Trump eyes Iran deal, Warsh pledges Fed independence

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On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said he expects a “great deal” with Iran even as he resists extending a ceasefire, while Bitcoin traded lower amid geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s independence during his Senate hearing, and crude oil prices remained volatile as markets weighed supply risks and potential peace talks.

Trump signals confidence on Iran deal

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he believes the US is “going to end up with a great deal” with Iran to end the war, even as he indicated he is unlikely to extend a ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday.

“I think they have no choice,” Trump said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

He added, “We’ve taken out their navy, we’ve taken out their air force, we’ve taken out their leaders.”

Trump acknowledged that leadership changes in Iran could complicate negotiations but suggested they may also bring more pragmatic counterparts to the table.

Asked whether he would extend the ceasefire, Trump said, “Well, I don’t want to do that.”

Separately, US forces escalated pressure by boarding a sanctioned oil tanker, the M/T Tifani, as part of a broader effort to disrupt Iran’s shipping network. The Pentagon said it would continue enforcement actions against vessels supporting Tehran.

Negotiations are expected to resume in Pakistan, though uncertainty remains over Iran’s participation as tensions persist.

Bitcoin dips as geopolitical uncertainty weighs

Bitcoin and broader crypto markets pulled back Tuesday as geopolitical risks and macro uncertainty weighed on sentiment.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped from near $77,000 to around $75,000 during the US session, reflecting cautious trading ahead of key developments.

Crypto-related equities also declined, with Coinbase falling more than 7% and Robinhood dropping 5.3%.

Analysts pointed to a combination of factors, including stalled Iran peace talks and macro policy uncertainty, as drivers of the pullback.

Despite the decline, sentiment has improved modestly. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose to 33, its highest level since mid-January, though it still signals “fear” among investors.

Warsh stresses Fed independence at Senate hearing

Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to central bank independence during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

“I never said to the President where I think rates should be… and I wouldn’t have even thought about doing so,” Warsh said.

He added: “The President never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision in any of our discussions, nor would I ever agree to do so.”

Warsh also emphasized he would act independently if confirmed as Federal Reserve chair, pushing back against concerns about political influence.

At the same time, he suggested the Fed may need a new framework to address persistent inflation but avoided giving specific guidance on near-term rate decisions.

Markets reacted to broader macro signals, with Treasury yields rising as traders scaled back expectations for rate cuts amid higher oil prices and strong economic data.

Crude oil volatile as markets await clarity

Oil prices remained volatile on Tuesday as investors weighed geopolitical risks against hopes for a diplomatic resolution.

Brent crude traded around $100.8 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $92.05, both gaining around 5% on the day.

Despite Trump’s firm stance on the ceasefire, expectations that talks could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz helped limit gains.

Shipping through the critical waterway remains restricted, raising concerns about global supply disruptions. The Strait accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil flows.

Additional risks include a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Tuapse port and lower Russian output, which could tighten supply further.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:360d7238a094b:0-evening-digest-trump-eyes-iran-deal-warsh-pledges-fed-independence/